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Research on forecasting methods has made important progress over recent years and these developments are brought together in the Handbook of Economic Forecasting. The handbook covers developments in how forecasts are constructed based on multivariate time-series models, dynamic factor models, nonlinear models and combination methods. The handbook also includes chapters on forecast evaluation, including evaluation of point forecasts and probability forecasts and contains chapters on survey forecasts and volatility forecasts. Areas of applications of forecasts covered in the handbook include economics, finance and marketing.

*Addresses economic forecasting methodology, forecasting models, forecasting with different data structures, and the applications of forecasting methods
*Insights within this volume can be applied to economics, finance and marketing disciplines

• Sales Rank: #872165 in eBooks
• Published on: 2006-05-30
• Released on: 2006-05-30
• Format: Kindle eBook

About the Author
Chancellor's Associate Chair in Economics, University of California, San Diego. Winner of The Nobel Prize for Economics 2003.

Most helpful customer reviews

7 of 7 people found the following review helpful.
Good reference
By Dr. Lee D. Carlson
The compilation of articles in this book gives a wide overview of the many techniques that are used in economic forecasting and each article compares the virtues of its approach with others that are used. Some readers, especially those who are just beginning their careers in econometrics and financial modeling may believe that economic models form a hierarchy, with the best ones being on top while the marginal ones are at the bottom. In addition, some may believe that more modern approaches are better than the ones taken several decades ago or conversely that no improvements have been made in economic modeling since it was established as a profession. As an example, recently a former chairman of the Federal Reserve stated that the economic forecasting tools of today are no better than ones in existence fifty years ago. He offered no evidence for this claim, no doubt because of the gargantuan amount of effort it would take to establish it. Indeed, to compare econometric models requires agreement on what constitutes a "valid" or "good" model, and once this is settled one frequently requires another model to do the comparisons. In addition, models are built for particular situations, domains, and contexts, and it is very common for a model to work much better than another in one context but fail miserably when compared to the other in another context. Ordinary linear regression for example can be better than more "sophisticated" approaches like neural networks in some areas of application. A more complex model is therefore not necessarily better than one that is relatively simple. So economic models do not form a hierarchy under any nontrivial classification of merit, nor can it be said that no progress has been made in economic modeling over the past fifty years.

The approaches to economic modeling as outlined in this book definitely support the idea that there is no free lunch when it comes to forecasting. It is the context that governs the efficacy of one model over another, and it might be said with fairness that the ability to select the proper model for this context comes with experience. This experience is definitely reflected in the authors that have composed the articles in this book. Readers will probably not read every article in the book, but will instead select those that interest them or those that show the most practical promise.

For this reviewer, some of the highlights of this work include:
* The discussion of the two principles behind Bayesian forecasting: the principle of explicit formulation and the principle of relevant conditioning. The later principle is always violated by non-Bayesian forecasting techniques
* A view of economic models of being "means", not "ends". This distinction is one to be kept in mind especially at the present time where financial modeling and economic forecasting is being blamed for much, if not all, of the turmoil in the financial markets.
* The discussion of the importance and need for discarding irrelevant information when doing simulations of joint distributions. As discussed in the book the justification for this omission can be given a sound, quantitative foundation.
* The importance of doing simulations rather than finding analytical solutions in economic modeling.
* More in-depth discussion on how to choose the prior distribution in Bayesian economic forecasting, thus removing some of the objections of this selection always being "purely subjective."
* The discussion on `hyperparameters' and their connection to latent variables and `hierarchical prior distributions.' These notions have recently been applied to forecasting of housing prices. The book mentions many other applications.
* The discussion on the `Bayes factor' and its use in assessing the evidence in favor of one economic model versus another. Recently the notion of a Bayes factor has been generalized in the field of artificial intelligence, wherein it is used to measure to what degree one machine is more "intelligent" (i.e. can better solve problems) than another.
* The discussion on the role of `posterior predictive' distributions in the construction of new economic models.
* The discussion on state space models, particularly the Kalman filter and its Bayesian interpretation. More discussion on the evaluation of the likelihood function would be appropriate here, especially computational issues surrounding the inversion of the innovation matrix.

Some of the downsides to the book include:
* There are relatively few explicit numerical examples illustrating the efficacies of the different models.
* Some of most important discussions are delegated to the references, although the reference list is quite extensive.
* The more "exotic" approaches to modeling, most of these coming from the field of artificial intelligence, are omitted or are only discussed briefly. Omitted topics include support vector machines, hidden Markov models, and inductive logic programming.
* No in-depth discussion of the tractability/computational complexity of the econometric models included. Issues of tractability are very important to those who are to implement these models in practice.

5 of 6 people found the following review helpful.
Excellent source of reference for econometric forecasting
By Jarmo Mikkola
This is the most comprehensive and authoritative source of reference for the econometric forecasting, I've seen. The editors and the writers are from the top of the discipline. Many texts are fairly mathematical, so the solid understanding of the basics of the statistics and the time series econometrics is required.

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Onomatopoeia is one of the most outstanding features of the Japanese language. Its acquisition is essential for students who wish to speak (or understand) natural Japanese, read literature or manga, or watch anime in the original. The problem is that Japanese onomatopoeic words are so different from their English equivalents (words such as pop, bang, splat, and squeak) that they are extremely hard to remember and put into practice.

The book begins with an introduction that outlines what "onomatopoeia" means in both English and Japanese. It covers sound and meaning in general, onomatopoeia in English, sound symbolism in English and Japanese, Japanese onomatopoeia and mimesis, types of Japanese onomatopoeia, grammatical functions of Japanese onomatopoeia, Japanese written forms, and how new Japanese onomatopoeic words are formed (for example, in manga).

This introductory material is all-important, for without the overall picture it presents, students are forced to learn Japanese onomatopoeia by rote, one word at a time, as if each was unique unto itself, as if each had no logical connection with any other word, and as if Japanese onomatopoeia was a huge, ugly hodgepodge instead of the beautiful, well-organized microcosm that it is.

However, this introduction alone would not suffice to produce fluency. Onomatopoeia must be seen in action for that to happen. This is done in the second part of the book, which consists of eleven situational dialogues that allow students to eavesdrop on Japanese speaking the way they do in real life. The dialogues are given in Japanese script (with furigana over all kanji), romanization, and English translation. Each example of onomatopoeia that appears in the dialogue has its own commentary, including definitions, usage, and two or more sample sentences. Cultural notes are given when they help to clarify the situation presented in the dialogue. Each dialogue is followed by a quiz.

With its edifying introduction and lively dialogues, Jazz Up Your Japanese with Onomatopoeia: For All Levels will, without a doubt, help students come to grips with this intriguing aspect of the Japanese language, whether they be intermediate students who can benefit from seeing onomatopoeia used in a variety of situations or beginning students who, as they slowly add new onomatopoeia to their vocabulary, will profit from seeing how these words fit into a larger, fully developed scheme. The book will also, whatever the level, make Japanese much more fun to study.

Previously published in Kodansha International's Power Japanese series under the title Flip, Slither, & Bang: Japanese Sound and Action Words (1993). Now with a new introduction and quizzes.

• Sales Rank: #764479 in Books
• Published on: 2012-11-16
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 5.20" h x .80" w x 7.40" l, .90 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 238 pages

From the Inside Flap
This book is an introduction to onomatopoeia and mimesis in Japanese through real-life conversations and examples. While presenting some of the most common sound and action words, I've added several other features to make the book even more useful.

The language in the book is natural spoken Japanese. Many people who study outside of Japan get a rude awakening when they first visit: they donÕt understand what anyone is saying. The reason is that the language they've learned from textbooks is stiff and unnatural, often unlike what is heard in everyday life. As a countermeasure of sorts, the conversations and examples given here are all in an informal spoken style, with a balance between women's and men's language. When you read this book, I hope you will feel as though you're having a nice friendly chat in Japanese, the way it would be done if you were talking to an actual person.

The topics show the real Japan. Contrary to popular belief, few Japanese have much to do with geisha, trade negotiations, or Mt. Fuji during their daily lives. The subject matter taken up in this book show what people actually talk about at home, at work, and at play.

Each of the main vocabulary items is marked G, N, or B (Good, Neutral, or Bad, to show if its sense is positive, neutral, or negative). After all, nothing is more embarrassing than to use a word that has the right meaning but the wrong connotation.

Brief notes provide information on cultural background. Every language is an essential part of the culture of the people who speak it, a window on the country's history and ways of thinking. That's why every language is different and difficult and fascinating. Learning another language is worthwhile because it gives you a link to other people, both as a vehicle for sharing ideas and as a practical tool for everyday life. But to master a language, you need more than grammar and vocabulary, so I've scattered notes throughout this book to provide some basic information about Japanese life and customs.

Typical Japanese names are used in the examples. It's hard to remember unfamiliar names in a foreign language. To help you out in this regard, I've made a point of using the ten most common surnames and a variety of common given names.

Illustrations show the settings of each conversation. If you've never visited Japan, these drawings should help you visualize the speakers and their surroundings.

You can read the book in any order. Some people always start on the first page of a book and read straight through to the last. If you prefer to skip around, though, go right ahead. Read the dialogues first or save them for later. Or use the index to look up particular words of interest.

Finally, I would like to express my appreciation to Kodansha International editors Michael Brase and Shigeyoshi Suzuki, who encouraged me to write this unwritable book, and to Tom Gally, who not only translated the book but also wrote the Introduction. I would also like to thank Joe D. Betts and Robert J. Betts for their timely advice.

About the Author

HIROKO FUKUDA, born in Tokyo, graduated from Keio University with a major in Japanese literature, after which she studied the teaching of Japanese as a foreign language in the International Division of Aoyama Gakuin University. After working as an editor, Japanese teacher, translation coordinator, and program director of language courses, she undertook the study of Applied Linguistics and Communication at the Graduate School of Aoyama Gakuin University. She is a frequent contributor to magazines and journals and has published several books on language, culture, and communication, including T-Shirt Japanese Versus Necktie Japanese: Two Levels of Politeness. She is currently Associate Professor at the College of Humanities of Ibaraki University and also teaches at Aoyama Gakuin University.

Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.
Introduction An Overview of Onomatopoeia

[Here are the opening pages of the Introduction. The Japanese script appearing the book has here been replaced by X's.]

Introduction Contents:

* Sound and Meaning; Onomatopoeia in English

* Sound Symbolism

* Onomatopoeia and Sound Symbolism in Japanese

* Sound Symbolism in Japanese Vowels

* Sound Symbolism in Japanese Consonants

* Words Beginning with Chi, Indicating Smallness or Quickness

* Onomatopoeia and Mimesis

* Types of Japanese Onomatopoeia

* Grammatical Function

* An Essential Part of Japanese

* Written Forms

* Making Up New Words

OnomatopoeiaÑthe use of words whose sounds suggest their meaningsÑis one of the most enjoyable and fascinating features of the Japanese language. With onomatopoeia, you can express a vast range of meanings in many situations. Onomatopoeia is also, however, one of the hardest parts of the language for English speakers to master, simply because it is so different from English onomatopoeia. Nevertheless, you need to come to grips with it in order to speak and understand Japanese properly.

This first chapter outlines the main features of Japanese onomatopoeia together with the related concepts of sound symbolism and mimesis. Here we will give you the large picture, leaving the details to the situational dialogues in the rest of the book. The big picture can be summarized thus: Japanese onomatopoeia is a well-developed, intricate system, a world unto itself. It is based on imitating natural sounds, but it also mimics, or represents, conditions and states that produce no sound at all. The words making up this system have not been created in a random manner, but follow certain rules and conventions. The vast majority of these words are not general purpose words (like XXX totemo very) that can be used relatively freely; they are, on the contrary, specific in meaning and restrictive concerning which words they combine with. Further, many of these words have more than one meaning or sense and can be used as more than one part of speech.

With the larger picture as given below in mind, you should find it much easier to understand, acquire, and reproduce Japanese onomatopoeia. This is no small thing, for onomatopoeia is one of the most fundamental, characteristic, and lively aspects of the Japanese language. For native Japanese speakers, onomatopoeia are not just words; they are windows through which they view the world. These words represent, to a considerable extent, the Japanese perception of life.

Before going on to take a closer look at Japanese onomatopoeia, however, let's first take a look at the relationship between sound and meaning in general.

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36 of 36 people found the following review helpful.
I don't understand the negative reviews
By Michael Callaghan
This is really a very good supplement to more traditional studies. The onomatopoeia here I have used with native Japanese speakers and all are understood and expressive.

I study Japanese to talk to my peers, to go out drinking, to watch and understand television, to tell jokes and offer conjecture. I don't study the language in order to make hotel reservations or constantly conjugate in an unnaturally polite fashion. Likewise, I spend time in Osaka and Nara, where people say "okini" and "nanbo", so the occasional kansai-ben is welcome.

Just this week I memorized casual sentances like "You don't look so hot", "When I got up this morning i felt a little woozy", "yeah, it's the pits all right" and "It's not like I drank too much last night - maybe I'm getting old". Do these really NOT sound useful? Do you never hear this sort of language in English?

These dialogues are AUTHENTICALLY casual, and they alternate between male and female. As a supplement that absolutely ROCKS - after all, 99% of Japanese-language learning material is polite and contrived... great for learning grammar and basic structure, but once you get to Japan you realize you can't understand anyone.

I was in New York and I used the phrase "shimijimi" with a Japanese woman and she smiled and asked - "How do know THAT? I don't even know how to say that in English." The sentence I used translated as "I was getting a little sentimental..."

This is a SUPPLEMENT, not a textbook, and a fairly advanced one, but emminently usable. It takes work to memorize and put into practice, but when I used 'berobero' and 'gongon' in conversations my friends unanimously agreed that Japanese folks use these phrases all the time. What else could you want?

this book was previously published as "Flip, Slither and Bang", which was a physically smaller edition, easier just to drop in a pocket. I would recommend this if you plan on hanging out in Japan, spending time with friends - it might be too much if you just need ask where the bathroom is.

25 of 28 people found the following review helpful.
Japanvisitor Review
By P. Beech
Originally published by Kodansha as Flip, Slither and Bang: Japanese Sound and Action Words as part of their Power Japanese series, this volume has undergone a makeover for the 21st century. Fukuda has added a useful overview introduction, and revision quizzes, both of which should help key Japanese onomatopoeia stick in your head.
And there's a lot to remember. While Japanese has appropriated Chinese script for most of its conceptual words, and promiscuously borrowed from English and other languages for more recent phenomena such as computers, it can be proud of the homegrown nature of its pervasive onomatopoeia - not to mention their expressive `punch'. While in English, such words are often associated with animal noises and children's tales, Japanese uses onomatopoeia widely, in anything from literature to everyday adult conversations, and to express everything from a simple sound to a complex emotional state. What English often uses metaphor to express, Japanese gets across with onomatopoeia. Wanwan may indeed be the sound of a Japanese doggy, but mukamuka means seriously cheesed off, gennari means worn out, and sesseto means as regular as clockwork. Adult enough for you?
Fukuda's introduction helps the learner contextualise the different forms and uses of Japanese onomatopoeia. This, along with an overall book structure based around situational dialogues, creates a fairly structured learning approach. As usual with a book focusing on one aspect of language, there is the temptation to pack in as many target expressions as possible until the dialogues become a bit buyobuyo (bloated). But apart from this, the language is very natural (in fact, `too' natural for the beginner, who should first be learning standard Japanese verb forms, for instance). The dialogues are followed by clear explanations of the target onomatopoeia and example sentences. All text is provided in original Japanese (with furigana readings) plus an English translation, while the dialogues also come in a romanised form for the less able reader. Helpful cultural notes are also scattered throughout the text.
The quizzes at the end of each section review the onomatopoeia, and the handy indexes allow you to find both Japanese and English definitions, so you can locate a particular expression you've heard in Japanese, or find an equivalent for the English concept you want to get across, independently of the dialogue contexts. Note though that this book is not a substitute for a dictionary of onomatopoeia, as it chooses to be selectively detailed rather than comprehensive.
Jazz Up Your Japanese with Onomatopoeia is subtitled For All Levels, which I think is a little ambitious, as much of the material would be overwhelming for neophytes. But this very density of information is a boon for the more advanced student. It will reward close study by significantly enhancing your knowledge of an underemphasised aspect of Japanese language that in many ways embodies the Japanese mindset.

3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
It really does Jazz Up Your Onomatopoeia
By omar
It is good book for Japanese language learners. It shows you the rules for Onomatopoeia and gives you real life examples which is something most language learning books fail to do.

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• Sales Rank: #3074341 in Books
• Published on: 2008-02-04
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: .28" h x 8.03" w x 8.07" l, .26 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 24 pages

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A timeless collection of essays from famed physician and statesman, the late William Osler, MD Capturing the essence of the healing art, the book makes the perfect gift item or serves as a welcome pause that refreshes.

• Sales Rank: #1423713 in Books
• Published on: 1904
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 8.30" h x 1.10" w x 5.60" l, 1.33 pounds
• Binding: Hardcover
• 451 pages

About the Author
McGraw-Hill authors represent the leading experts in their fields and are dedicated to improving the lives, careers, and interests of readers worldwide

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5 of 6 people found the following review helpful.
Terrible print of a classic text
By Michael F. Mcneeley
This *used* to be an excellent gift edition of Aequanimitas, with a matte leatherette cover and nice paper stock. However, they've switched to MUCH cheaper materials, including a too-shiny, plasticky laminated cover and flimsy paper stock. This used to be a steal at $80. Now, it's a ripoff at $60. If I'd known how severely they'd scaled back their materials, I wouldn't have even considered this as a gift purchase. Not even at $10. Or free. Looks terrible and cheap.

12 of 17 people found the following review helpful.
Osler the great physician!
By A Customer
"Aequanimitas" is the very book must be read by all the medical students all over the world! The spirits of Osler is in this book, and will be in all the mind of the students who read it.

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Informed tourism policies and plans require a critical appreciation of the historically complex and dynamic contexts in which public policy is developed and implemented, and of the impacts of public policy. The principle aim of Tourism Planning and Policy is to raise students\' and practitioners\' knowledge of tourism planning and policy-making and help develop their skills in analysing policy and planning processes and outcomes in diverse settings. A second aim of the book is to give practical insights and understandings that students will be able to apply in a range of careers in the private sector or the public service. This text forms a valuable addition to the Wiley Australia Tourism Series. FEATURES * Excellent coverage of topics including chapters on trends, perspectives and practice, Indigenous tourism, local tourism, and protected areas.* Case studies conclude each chapter to illustrate the application of concepts, theories, models, principles and processes. * A wealth of end of chapter material including key terms, questions and exercises to enhance scholarly review of the content of each chapter. * Two practical features in each chapter illustrate and reinforce chapter content: * Planning in Practice: presents how a tourism issue has been implemented and/or managed. Topics include public interest in Wilson\'s Promontory National Park, regional amalgamations in Western Australia, the managing dolphin feeding at Tin Can Bay, and the United Nations convention on the Law of the Sea.* Tourism Planning Breakthrough: presents an example of a cutting edge tourism plan or process. Topics include implementing the reef tax, the Tourism Impact Model, coral cay conservation, and Indigenous tourism in protected areas.

• Sales Rank: #5122301 in Books
• Published on: 2006-10-13
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 9.53" h x 1.02" w x 7.09" l, 2.16 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 486 pages

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• Published on: 1628
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