Rabu, 29 Januari 2014

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Look Into My Eyes: How To Use Hypnosis To Bring Out The Best In Your Sex Life, by Peter Masters

Here's a practical, no nonsense guide to using hypnosis in your sex life. Hypnosis can help you lower inhibitions, and increase sexual feelings and responsiveness. It can also be used to help you get more out of your role-playing and fantasies. And it can be a lot of fun. In this book, Peter Masters takes you firstly through a step-by-step guide to hypnotising your partner, and then explores how you can use hypnosis to: - Heighten their sexual feelings - Help them focus and stay involved longer - Create compelling sexual fantasies - Help them get more involved in your role-playing - Give effective posthypnotic suggestions to your partner which they'll respond to after your hypnosis session is over The second half of the book is packed with practical examples and hypnosis scripts which you can use straight from the book, or which you can adapt and modify to suit you and your partner.

  • Sales Rank: #264153 in eBooks
  • Published on: 2011-06-11
  • Released on: 2011-06-11
  • Format: Kindle eBook

About the Author
PETER MASTERS is primarily a teacher, sports instructor, computer geek and writer. He has been interested in hypnosis since his early teens. To make sure he fully appreciated it and got it "right" he studied for and achieved a diploma in clinical hypnotherapy by the time he was 20. Although these days he doesn't directly use his qualification in any of his professional activities, he still tries to keep his hand in, and to stay in touch with the current literature and developments. This book is the result of both research, and of private-life exploration over the last twenty years with a variety of partners. Like most of his projects it started out as a way of finding and filling in the gaps in his own understanding. With any luck he hopes to bring an air of rational understanding and practicality to a topic which has too often been seen as akin to magic.

Most helpful customer reviews

91 of 95 people found the following review helpful.
A new "toy" for the bedroom
By Magdalene Meretrix
I was curious to read Master's book because I have been hypnotized several times myself - though in a therapeutic setting, not a sexual setting. I haven't yet tried the techniques outlined in Master's book (though I've passed my copy off to my partner and am curious to see where things go) but I can say, speaking from my own experience of being hypnotized many times, that Masters has written an excellent guide to hypnosis for the lay person. His instructions are clear and very detailed and he often explains the reasoning behind his instructions as well so that the reader will be able to confidently adapt the techniques for individual situations. Masters even covers many of the "glitches" I personally experienced as a hypnosis subject and explains ways to avoid or minimize those situations.
Masters spends a good amount of time explaining the ethics of hypnosis. This is very important since hypnosis requires a good amount of trust and is an activity that can be abused by the unscrupulous. Despite the possibility for abuse, however, Masters makes certain to point out that hypnosis cannot force someone to do things that they wouldn't otherwise be willing to do. This is not a book for someone who wants to trick people into going to bed with them or force people to do things against their will. This is not a book of techniques to save a failing marriage. Hypnosis is about enhancing what is already there, lowering inhibitions against following one's inherent desires, helping one to gain the courage to explore one's desires more closely and so on. The author does not come across as preachy when discussing ethics and his writing style makes it interesting to read what might otherwise be a dry topic.
The reader should expect to spend a lot of time and effort implementing the ideas in this book. This is not a book one just reads and then sets down and is done with -- to get the most out of this book, one has to be willing to work on the exercises. Progress is slow as Masters wisely advises couples to take their time getting into hypnosis. In fact, Masters strongly suggests that the first session consist only of hypnotizing one's partner, checking to see if they are in a trance, bringing them back out of the trance and talking about what happened. Don't expect to be able to read this book in the afternoon and then have fully hypnotized active sex that evening unless you are already an expert hypnotist and your partner is already a proven subject with whom you have worked before. If you want an instant sex toy, get a new vibrator. This book is for people who are willing and able to put a lot of effort and time into building creative and vibrant sex play.
For those interested in using the ideas in this book professionally (such as dominatrices and other sex workers), Masters offers sufficient information and advice that is readily adapted to a professional setting including a short section about the BDSM applications of hypnosis. He also covers what sort of people should most definitely not be hypnotized and workers can use this information for screening purposes to "risk out" those for whom hypnosis play would be more dangerous than erotic.
One of the most valuable aspects of this book, in my opinion, is the copious inclusion of scripts. When I think about hypnotizing a partner, my biggest fear is that I will not know what to say or not remember the best ways to phrase ideas. Masters includes scripts for inducing hypnosis, scripts for dealing with various hypnotic situations and even suggested scripts for sexual fantasy play. Of course many of these scripts should be modified so that they more accurately fit individual situations. A really dedicated reader could even type out the scripts with appropriate modifications and print out their own personal scripts for play sessions.
I found this to be an excellent book and clearly written. I am eager to begin working with the techniques to add a little extra spice to bedroom play between my partner and myself and recommend this book to anyone who wants to add some adventure and mystery to their sex life.

22 of 26 people found the following review helpful.
Fascinating
By Todd Hawley
This book takes a look at using hypnosis to "bring out the best" in your sex life. It shows you how to heighten arousal, add to roleplay, and enhance a connection with your partner, among other topics. While the topic of using hypnosis had in the past made me a bit nervous, Masters' approach to the topic is at times gentle and humorous and makes you comfortable with using it. As he points out, it is not about coercion or being forced to be hypnotized against your will. And the book's scenario examples are quite entertaining to read.

5 of 6 people found the following review helpful.
Very Good!
By Ayris
This was a very interesting read. This teaches you how to hypnotize effectively, how to measure how deeply someone is hypnotized (and how to get them deeper into trance, thusly more real sensations), tips on how to word things for the very literal minded hypnotized, and gives you ideas of what to do with hypnosis as well as some scripts for couples and if you just want to give your significant other a solo treat. It includes a variety of common scenario fetishes including mile high club, slave/master, sex on the beach, and so on. It is written very well and flows wonderfully, it was marvelously difficult to put down. It is well worth the price!
My husband and I have already been enjoying hypnosis in our relations but this book had taught us many useful things.
Hypnosis is a great way to loosen inhibitions. Though if you REALLY don't want to you still will not preform something you wouldn't want to do, so don't worry about being taken advantage of, and you still will remember your wonderful adventures. Even a perfectly happy sex life can use a little spice now and then, and this is a useful addition to your tool box. If you have any fetishes or scenarios you've always wanted to try but never had the chance, or were a little afraid/shy to, this is the answer. This even can help remove performance anxiety and make you more or less sensitive to a certain extent. All these things and more are outlined in the book. Go ahead, have some fun!

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Selasa, 28 Januari 2014

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Metamaus Look Inside Modern Classic Maus HC, by Art Spiegelman

  • Published on: 2012
  • Binding: Hardcover

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Sabtu, 25 Januari 2014

[W951.Ebook] Ebook Free Cambridge IGCSE Computer Science, by David Watson

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Cambridge IGCSE Computer Science, by David Watson

Endorsed by Cambridge International Examinations. Develop your students computational thinking and programming skills with complete coverage of the latest syllabus from experienced examiners and teachers. - Follows the order of the syllabus exactly, ensuring complete coverage - Introduces students to self-learning exercises, helping them learn how to use their knowledge in new scenarios Accompanying animation files of the key concepts are available to download for free online. See the Quick Links to the left to access. This book covers the IGCSE (0478), O Level (2210) and US IGCSE entry (0473) syllabuses, which are for first examination 2015. It may also be a useful reference for students taking the new Computer Science AS level course (9608).

  • Sales Rank: #1470895 in Books
  • Published on: 2014-10-15
  • Original language: English
  • Dimensions: 10.75" h x 8.25" w x .50" l, 1.23 pounds
  • Binding: Paperback
  • 400 pages

About the Author
Dave Watson and Helen Williams are the principal examiners for Cambridge IGCSE Computer Science.

Most helpful customer reviews

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Great
By Pirayut Pattanayanon
Book Extra Missing but overall very useful for the first book on this new subject please add book extras soon

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Five Stars
By Bassel D.
Great...

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Sabtu, 18 Januari 2014

[D713.Ebook] Free Ebook Discounted Cash Flow: A Theory of the Valuation of Firms (The Wiley Finance Series), by Lutz Kruschwitz, Andreas Loeffler

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Discounted Cash Flow: A Theory of the Valuation of Firms (The Wiley Finance Series), by Lutz Kruschwitz, Andreas Loeffler

Firm valuation is currently a very exciting topic. It is interesting for those economists engaged in either practice or theory, particularly for those in finance. The literature on firm valuation recommends logical, quantitative methods, which deal with establishing today's value of future free cash flows. In this respect firm valuation is identical with the calculation of the discounted cash flow, DCF. There are, however, different coexistent versions, which seem to compete against each other. Entity approach and equity approach are thus differentiated. Acronyms are often used, such as APV (adjusted present value) or WACC (weighted average cost of capital), whereby these two concepts are classified under entity approach.

Why are there several procedures and not just one? Do they all lead to the same result? If not, where do the economic differences lie? If so, for what purpose are different methods needed? And further: do the known procedures suffice? Or are there situations where none of the concepts developed up to now delivers the correct value of the firm? If so, how is the appropriate valuation formula to be found? These questions are not just interesting for theoreticians; even the practitioner who is confronted with the task of marketing his or her results has to deal with it. The authors systematically clarify the way in which these different variations of the DCF concept are related throughout the book

ENDORSEMENTS FOR LÖFFLER: DISCOUNTED 0-470-87044-3

"Compared with the huge number of books on pragmatic approaches to discounted cash flow valuation, there are remarkably few that lay out the theoretical underpinnings of this technique. Kruschwitz and Löffler bring together the theory in this area in a consistent and rigorous way that should be useful for all serious students of the topic."
--Ian Cooper, London Business School

"This treatise on the market valuation of corporate cash flows offers the first reconciliation of conventional cost-of-capital valuation models from the corporate finance literature with state-pricing (or 'risk-neutral' pricing) models subsequently developed on the basis of multi-period no-arbitrage theories. Using an entertaining style, Kruschwitz and Löffler develop a precise and theoretically consistent definition of 'cost of capital', and provoke readers to drop vague or contradictory alternatives."
--Darrell Duffie, Stanford University

"Handling firm and personal income taxes properly in valuation involves complex considerations. This book offers a new, precise, clear and concise theoretical path that is pleasant to read. Now it is the practitioners task to translate this approach into real-world applications!"
--Wolfgang Wagner, PricewaterhouseCoopers

"It is an interesting book, which has some new results and it fills a gap in the literature between the usual undergraduate material and the very abstract PhD material in such books as that of Duffie (Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory). The style is very engaging, which is rare in books pitched at this level."
--Martin Lally, University of Wellington

  • Sales Rank: #2111202 in eBooks
  • Published on: 2007-12-10
  • Released on: 2007-12-10
  • Format: Kindle eBook

From the Inside Flap
"Compared with the huge number of books on pragmatic approaches to discounted cash flow valuation, there are remarkably few that lay out the theoretical underpinnings of this technique. Kruschwitz and Loffler bring together the theory in this area in a consistent and rigorous way that should be useful for all serious students of the topic."
--Ian Cooper, London Business School
"This treatise on the market valuation of corporate cash flows offers the first reconciliation of conventional cost-of-capital valuation models from the corporate finance literature with state-pricing (or 'risk-neutral' pricing) models subsequently developed on the basis of multi-period no-arbitrage theories. Using an entertaining style, Kruschwitz and Loffler develop a precise and theoretically consistent definition of 'cost of capital', and provoke readers to drop vague or contradictory alternatives."
--Darrell Duffie, Stanford University
"Handling firm and personal income taxes properly in valuation involves complex considerations. This book offers a new, precise, clear and concise theoretical path that is pleasant to read. Now it is the practitioners task to translate this approach into real-world applications!"
--Wolfgang Wagner, PricewaterhouseCoopers
"It is an interesting book, which has some new results and it fills a gap in the literature between the usual undergraduate material and the very abstract PhD material in such books as that of Duffie (Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory). The style is very engaging, which is rare in books pitched at this level."
--Martin Lally, University of Wellington

From the Back Cover
Firm valuation is currently a very exciting topic. It is interesting for those economists engaged in either practice or theory, particularly for those in finance. The literature on firm valuation recommends logical, quantitative methods, which deal with establishing today’s value of future free cash flows. In this respect firm valuation is identical with the calculation of the discounted cash flow, DCF. There are, however, different coexistent versions, which seem to compete against each other. Entity approach and equity approach are thus differentiated. Acronyms are often used, such as APV (adjusted present value) or WACC (weighted average cost of capital), whereby these two concepts are classified under entity approach.

Why are there several procedures and not just one? Do they all lead to the same result? If not, where do the economic differences lie? If so, for what purpose are different methods needed? And further: do the known procedures suffice? Or are there situations where none of the concepts developed up to now delivers the correct value of the firm? If so, how is the appropriate valuation formula to be found? These questions are not just interesting for theoreticians; even the practitioner who is confronted with the task of marketing his or her results has to deal with it. The authors systematically clarify the way in which these different variations of the DCF concept are related throughout the book

ENDORSEMENTS FOR LÖFFLER: DISCOUNTED 0-470-87044-3

"Compared with the huge number of books on pragmatic approaches to discounted cash flow valuation, there are remarkably few that lay out the theoretical underpinnings of this technique. Kruschwitz and Löffler bring together the theory in this area in a consistent and rigorous way that should be useful for all serious students of the topic."
—Ian Cooper, London Business School

"This treatise on the market valuation of corporate cash flows offers the first reconciliation of conventional cost-of-capital valuation models from the corporate finance literature with state-pricing (or 'risk-neutral' pricing) models subsequently developed on the basis of multi-period no-arbitrage theories. Using an entertaining style, Kruschwitz and Löffler develop a precise and theoretically consistent definition of 'cost of capital', and provoke readers to drop vague or contradictory alternatives."
—Darrell Duffie, Stanford University

"Handling firm and personal income taxes properly in valuation involves complex considerations. This book offers a new, precise, clear and concise theoretical path that is pleasant to read. Now it is the practitioners task to translate this approach into real-world applications!"
—Wolfgang Wagner, PricewaterhouseCoopers

"It is an interesting book, which has some new results and it fills a gap in the literature between the usual undergraduate material and the very abstract PhD material in such books as that of Duffie (Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory). The style is very engaging, which is rare in books pitched at this level."
—Martin Lally, University of Wellington

About the Author
Lutz Kruschwitz (pictured left) is chair of Banking and Finance at the Freie Universität in Berlin. He was born in 1943 in Berlin, Germany, and is a graduate in economics from the Freie Universität in Berlin. His research interest include investment and valuation theory in particular. He has written several bestselling german finance textbooks.

Andreas Löffler is chair of Banking and Finance at the Universität of Hannover. He was born in 1964 in Szeged, Hungary, and is a graduate in mathematics and economics from Universität Leipzig and Freie Universität Berlin. His research interest include decision theory and valuation theory. He has published in a number of academic journals.

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Confessions of the Pricing Man: How Price Affects Everything, by Hermann Simon

The world’s foremost expert on pricing strategy shows how this mysterious process works and how to maximize value through pricing to company and customer.

In all walks of life, we constantly make decisions about whether something is worth our money or our time, or try to convince others to part with their money or their time. Price is the place where value and money meet. From the global release of the latest electronic gadget to the bewildering gyrations of oil futures to markdowns at the bargain store, price is the most powerful and pervasive economic force in our day-to-day lives and one of the least understood.

The recipe for successful pricing often sounds like an exotic cocktail, with equal parts psychology, economics, strategy, tools and incentives stirred up together, usually with just enough math to sour the taste. That leads managers to water down the drink with hunches and rules of thumb, or leave out the parts with which they don’t feel comfortable. While this makes for a sweeter drink, it often lacks the punch to have an impact on the customer or on the business.

It doesn’t have to be that way, though, as Hermann Simon illustrates through dozens of stories collected over four decades in the trenches and behind the scenes. A world-renowned speaker on pricing and a trusted advisor to Fortune 500 executives, Simon’s lifelong journey has taken him from rural farmers’ markets, to a distinguished academic career, to a long second career as a

n entrepreneur and management consultant to companies large and small throughout the world. Along the way, he has learned from Nobel Prize winners and leading management gurus, and helped countless managers and executives use pricing as a way to create new markets, grow their businesses and gain a sustained competitive advantage. He also learned some tough personal lessons about value, how people perceive it, and how people profit from it.

In this engaging and practical narrative, Simon leaves nothing out of the pricing cocktail, but still makes it go down smoothly and leaves you wanting to learn more and do more―as a consumer or as a business person. You will never look at pricing the same way again.

  • Sales Rank: #42138 in Books
  • Published on: 2015-11-22
  • Released on: 2015-11-22
  • Original language: German
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 9.25" h x .57" w x 6.10" l, 1.80 pounds
  • Binding: Paperback
  • 221 pages

Review

“This is the best book I know to open your mind to the practical problems in setting your prices.” (Prof. Philip Kotler, S.C. Johnson & Son Distinguished Professor of International Marketing, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University)

“Hermann Simon is ‘The Pricing Man’ and a giant within our discipline. With more than 40 years of experience in pricing research and practice with companies across the globe and across all major industries, he possesses the know-how to help organizations large, medium-sized, and small to improve their pricing acumen. This book will help you improve your pricing management skills, strategies, and tactics – and it will help your company also.” (Kevin Mitchell, President, The Professional Pricing Society, Inc.)

“Hermann Simon is a man who can get upset about being offered a 35 percent discount on a new digital camera. His fascination with ‘willingness to pay’ is infectious. As much as any individual, he is behind the professionalization of pricing in the past couple of decades.” (William Poundstone, Author of Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value (and How to Take Advantage of It))

From the Back Cover

The world’s foremost expert on pricing strategy shows how this mysterious process works and how to maximize value through pricing to company and customer.

 

In this engaging and practical narrative, Hermann Simon leaves nothing out of the pricing cocktail, explaining each ingredient through dozens of stories collected over four decades in the trenches and behind the scenes. A world-renowned speaker on pricing and a trusted advisor to Fortune 500 executives, Simon’s lifelong journey has taken him from rural farmers’ markets, to a distinguished academic career, to a long second career as an entrepreneur and management consultant to companies large and small throughout the world.  Along the way, he has learned from Nobel Prize winners and leading management gurus, and helped countless managers and executives use pricing as a way to create new markets, grow their businesses, and gain a sustained competitive advantage.  Here, for consumers and business people alike, he reveals the secrets of successful pricing practices, and shares the wisdom and common sense that will forever change the way you thinking about pricing.

 

“This is the best book I know to open your mind to the practical problems in setting your prices.”

PHILIP KOTLER, S.C. Johnson & Son Distinguished Professor of International Marketing at the Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University.

 

“Hermann Simon is ‘The Pricing Man’ and a giant within

our discipline. With more than 40 years of experience in pricing research and practice with companies across the globe and across all major industries, he possesses the know-how to help organizations large, medium-sized, and small to improve their pricing acumen. This book will help you improve your pricing management skills, strategies, and tactics – and it will help your company also.”

KEVIN MITCHELL, President, The Professional Pricing Society, Inc.

 

“Hermann Simon is a man who can get upset about being offered a 35 percent discount on a new digital camera. His fascination with ‘willingness to pay’ is infectious. As much as any individual, he is behind the professionalization of pricing in the past couple of decades.”

WILLIAM POUNDSTONE, Author, Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value (and How to Take Advantage of It)

 

About the Author

Hermann Simon is Chairman of Simon-Kucher & Partners Strategy & Marketing Consultants, which has 27 offices in 22 countries. He is the world’s leading authority on pricing.

Simon was a professor of business administration and marketing at the Universities of Mainz (1989-1995) and Bielefeld (1979-1989). He was also a visiting professor at Harvard Business School, Stanford, London Business School, INSEAD, Keio University in Tokyo and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He studied economics and business administration at the universities of Bonn and Cologne. He received his diploma (1973) and his doctorate (1976) from the University of Bonn. He has received numerous international awards and honorary doctorates and was voted the most influential management thinker in German-speaking countries after the late Peter Drucker.

Simon founded Simon-Kucher & Partners in 1985 together with two of his doctoral students. After advising the firm for a decade, Hermann left his academic career in 1995 to assume the full-time role as CEO of Simon-Kucher & Partners, where he led the firm’s international expansion. When he left that role in 2009, Simon-Kucher & Partners had become the world’s largest pricing consulting practice, active in all major industries. The firm has consulted with almost 100 members of the Fortune 500, some in decades-long relationships.

Simon has published over 30 books in 26 languages, including the worldwide

bestsel

lers Power Pricing (Free Press, 1997), Manage for Profit, Not for Market Share (Harvard Business School Press, 2006), Hidden Champions (Harvard Business School Press, 1996), and Hidden Champions of the 21st Century (Springer New York, 2009). He has served on the editorial boards of numerous business journals, including the International Journal of Research in Marketing, Management Science, Recherche et Applications en Marketing, Décisions Marketing, European Management Journal as well as several German journals. Since 1988 he has been a columnist for the business monthly Manager Magazin. He is also a board member of numerous foundations and corporations.    

Most helpful customer reviews

9 of 11 people found the following review helpful.
Great book! Great advice!
By Mag Michael Brandtner
Still a lot of marketing and business people think that pricing is a “dull job”. They will change their minds immediately after reading this book. In “Confessions of the Pricing Man” Hermann Simon does not only show that pricing affects everything in business, he also does it in an entertaining way using a lot of real world examples including companies and brands like Amazon, Apple, Samsung, Dell, Gillette, H&M, Zara, Porsche, IKEA, Ryanair or Zalando. In detail, he presents the (strange) psychology of pricing, also including the placebo effect, the most important price positioning strategies, and of course the effects pricing has on profits and decision making. There is also one chapter on innovations in pricing, one on pricing in crises and price wars and one describing the key role of the CEO in pricing. Everybody engaged in business and marketing should read this book, because managers who understand the underlying dynamics of price can turn that knowledge into higher profits and a strong competitive advantage. And that’s what business success is all about in our highly competitive environment.

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Another great book by Professor Hermann Simon - the pricing guru
By Rainer Elste
The great thing about books by Hermann Simon is: you wouldn't even have to read them in order to recommend them to your friends - they are all great books - a perfect mixture of practical advice, scientific evidence and forward looking.

3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
Simon did it again!
By Fabian Stephany
Confessions of the Pricing Man greatly benefits from the different perspectives Simon has experienced in his life as a practitioner and academic. With insightful anecdotes, he guides the reader from rural farmers' markets to multinational companies and their complex pricing strategies in a globalised world. Again, Professor Simon manages to raise the reader's interest for the complex topic of how prices are made, with his passion and the experience and knowledge of more than 40 years of pricing. I have read this book in one go!

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The goal of this book is to collect methods and protocols for studying cilia in a wide range of different cell types, so that researchers from many fields of biology can start exploring the role of cilia in their own system.

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  • Cutting-edge material

  • Sales Rank: #7756761 in Books
  • Published on: 2015-04-08
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 9.30" h x 1.30" w x 7.70" l, .0 pounds
  • Binding: Hardcover
  • 614 pages

About the Author
Wallace Marshall is an electrical engineer by training, who became interested in biology out of a desire to understand how cells solve engineering problems, such as determining the size of organelles. He received his Ph.D. at UCSF with John Sedat, where he studied the diffusional of motion of interphase chromatin using live cell imaging and computational image analysis. He then trained as a postdoc with Joel Rosenbaum at Yale, where he began studying the mechanisms regulating the length of cilia and flagella. He is now Profess of Biochemistry at UCSF, where he lab continues to study the assembly and length regulation of cilia and flagella, as well as the mechanisms that regulate the size of other organelles. His work takes advantage of an integrated combination of methods including genetics, microscopy, and computational modeling, as well as a wide variety of model organisms including Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, Stentor coeruleus, yeast, flatworms, and mammalian cells.

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Kamis, 09 Januari 2014

[P481.Ebook] Fee Download Handbook of Economic Forecasting: 1, by G. Elliott

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Handbook of Economic Forecasting: 1, by G. Elliott

Handbook of Economic Forecasting: 1, by G. Elliott



Handbook of Economic Forecasting: 1, by G. Elliott

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Handbook of Economic Forecasting: 1, by G. Elliott

Research on forecasting methods has made important progress over recent years and these developments are brought together in the Handbook of Economic Forecasting. The handbook covers developments in how forecasts are constructed based on multivariate time-series models, dynamic factor models, nonlinear models and combination methods. The handbook also includes chapters on forecast evaluation, including evaluation of point forecasts and probability forecasts and contains chapters on survey forecasts and volatility forecasts. Areas of applications of forecasts covered in the handbook include economics, finance and marketing.

*Addresses economic forecasting methodology, forecasting models, forecasting with different data structures, and the applications of forecasting methods
*Insights within this volume can be applied to economics, finance and marketing disciplines

  • Sales Rank: #872165 in eBooks
  • Published on: 2006-05-30
  • Released on: 2006-05-30
  • Format: Kindle eBook

About the Author
Chancellor's Associate Chair in Economics, University of California, San Diego. Winner of The Nobel Prize for Economics 2003.

Most helpful customer reviews

7 of 7 people found the following review helpful.
Good reference
By Dr. Lee D. Carlson
The compilation of articles in this book gives a wide overview of the many techniques that are used in economic forecasting and each article compares the virtues of its approach with others that are used. Some readers, especially those who are just beginning their careers in econometrics and financial modeling may believe that economic models form a hierarchy, with the best ones being on top while the marginal ones are at the bottom. In addition, some may believe that more modern approaches are better than the ones taken several decades ago or conversely that no improvements have been made in economic modeling since it was established as a profession. As an example, recently a former chairman of the Federal Reserve stated that the economic forecasting tools of today are no better than ones in existence fifty years ago. He offered no evidence for this claim, no doubt because of the gargantuan amount of effort it would take to establish it. Indeed, to compare econometric models requires agreement on what constitutes a "valid" or "good" model, and once this is settled one frequently requires another model to do the comparisons. In addition, models are built for particular situations, domains, and contexts, and it is very common for a model to work much better than another in one context but fail miserably when compared to the other in another context. Ordinary linear regression for example can be better than more "sophisticated" approaches like neural networks in some areas of application. A more complex model is therefore not necessarily better than one that is relatively simple. So economic models do not form a hierarchy under any nontrivial classification of merit, nor can it be said that no progress has been made in economic modeling over the past fifty years.

The approaches to economic modeling as outlined in this book definitely support the idea that there is no free lunch when it comes to forecasting. It is the context that governs the efficacy of one model over another, and it might be said with fairness that the ability to select the proper model for this context comes with experience. This experience is definitely reflected in the authors that have composed the articles in this book. Readers will probably not read every article in the book, but will instead select those that interest them or those that show the most practical promise.

For this reviewer, some of the highlights of this work include:
* The discussion of the two principles behind Bayesian forecasting: the principle of explicit formulation and the principle of relevant conditioning. The later principle is always violated by non-Bayesian forecasting techniques
* A view of economic models of being "means", not "ends". This distinction is one to be kept in mind especially at the present time where financial modeling and economic forecasting is being blamed for much, if not all, of the turmoil in the financial markets.
* The discussion of the importance and need for discarding irrelevant information when doing simulations of joint distributions. As discussed in the book the justification for this omission can be given a sound, quantitative foundation.
* The importance of doing simulations rather than finding analytical solutions in economic modeling.
* More in-depth discussion on how to choose the prior distribution in Bayesian economic forecasting, thus removing some of the objections of this selection always being "purely subjective."
* The discussion on `hyperparameters' and their connection to latent variables and `hierarchical prior distributions.' These notions have recently been applied to forecasting of housing prices. The book mentions many other applications.
* The discussion on the `Bayes factor' and its use in assessing the evidence in favor of one economic model versus another. Recently the notion of a Bayes factor has been generalized in the field of artificial intelligence, wherein it is used to measure to what degree one machine is more "intelligent" (i.e. can better solve problems) than another.
* The discussion on the role of `posterior predictive' distributions in the construction of new economic models.
* The discussion on state space models, particularly the Kalman filter and its Bayesian interpretation. More discussion on the evaluation of the likelihood function would be appropriate here, especially computational issues surrounding the inversion of the innovation matrix.

Some of the downsides to the book include:
* There are relatively few explicit numerical examples illustrating the efficacies of the different models.
* Some of most important discussions are delegated to the references, although the reference list is quite extensive.
* The more "exotic" approaches to modeling, most of these coming from the field of artificial intelligence, are omitted or are only discussed briefly. Omitted topics include support vector machines, hidden Markov models, and inductive logic programming.
* No in-depth discussion of the tractability/computational complexity of the econometric models included. Issues of tractability are very important to those who are to implement these models in practice.

5 of 6 people found the following review helpful.
Excellent source of reference for econometric forecasting
By Jarmo Mikkola
This is the most comprehensive and authoritative source of reference for the econometric forecasting, I've seen. The editors and the writers are from the top of the discipline. Many texts are fairly mathematical, so the solid understanding of the basics of the statistics and the time series econometrics is required.

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